摘    要：目的 研究杭州市大气污染物与居民死亡风险的相关性。方法 收集杭州市全市2014-2016年环境空气质量数据、气象监测数据及居民死亡资料，采用GAM模型，分析杭州市大气PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2与居民总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡、循环系统疾病死亡之间的关系。结果 杭州市居民每日总死亡风险、呼吸系统疾病死亡风险、循环系统疾病死亡风险因大气PM10分别增加0.37%、0.41%、0.44%，因大气PM2.5分别增加了0.47%、0.60%、0.45%，因大气NO 2分别增加了0.94%、2.01%、1.43%，因大气SO2分别增加了3.08%、6.06%、3.66%。多数在滞后2天大气污染物对居民死亡风险影响最大。结论 杭州市大气PM10、PM2.5、SO2、NO2均增加居民总死亡风险、呼吸系统疾病死亡风险、循环系统疾病死亡风险，SO2引起的死亡风险最高，PM10最小。

关键词：大气污染； 呼吸系统疾病； 循环系统疾病；死亡

Abstract：Objective To study the correlation between air pollutants and death risk in Hangzhou. Methods We collected environmental air quality data, meteorological monitoring data and resident death data of Hangzhou city from 2014 to 2016. Using the generalized additive model (GAM), we analyzed the correlation between air pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10, SO2, NO2) and death risk (total death, respiratory disease death, circulatory disease death) of Hangzhou. And we adjusted some related factors, such as the effects of long-term and seasonal trend. Results An increase of 10μg/m3 in PM10 was associated with 0.37% total morality , 0.44% circulatory morality and  0.41% respiratory morality .An increase of 10μg/m3 in PM2.5 had something to do with 0.47% total morality, 0.45% circulatory morality and  0.60% respiratory morality .An increase of 10μg/m3 in NO2 was associated with 0.94% total morality, 1.43% circulatory morality and 2.01%  respiratory morality .An increase of 10μg/m3 in SO2 was associated with 3.08% total morality, 3.66% circulatory morality and 6.06%  respiratory morality . Most air pollutants had the most significant effect on the risk of death in the Lag2. Conclusion Our findings indicated that the extent of exposure to PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2 in Hangzhou increased the risk of total death of residents, death risk of respiratory diseases and death of circulatory system. SO2 causes the highest risk of death, and PM10 is the smallest.

Keyword: Air pollution； Respiratory disease； Circulatory disease；Mortality

目    录

中文摘要 2

英文摘要 3

1.前言 5

2.资料与方法 5

2.1数据收集 5

2.1.1居民死亡资料 5

2.1.2气象监测数据 5

2.1.3环境空气质量数据 5

2.2统计分析 5

2.2.1描述性分析 6

2.2.2相关性分析 6

2.2.3时间序列分析 6

3.结果 7

3.1基本情况 7

3.2大气污染物与气象因素的相关分析 12

3.3大气污染物与居民死亡模型分析 14

3.3.1单污染物分析 14

3.3.2多污染物分析 18

4.讨论 杭州市大气污染物与居民死亡风险的相关性研究:http://www.chuibin.com/huaxue/lunwen_206588.html