杭嘉湖平原水稻高温热害时空变化特征研究

摘要：全球气候变暖背景下，极端高温天气频发，高温热害对水稻的影响愈加突出。杭嘉湖是我国水稻的重要产区之一，研究该地区水稻高温热害时空变化特征对提高粮食产量具有重要意义。本文根据杭嘉湖多个气象站的历史观测资料，基于数值统计、线性回归分析方法，分析气候变化背景下，杭嘉湖水稻高温热害的空间分布、时间变化趋势（包括年际变化和年代际变化特征），以期为相关部门制定高温热害适应性对策提供科学依据。结果表明：（1）杭嘉湖平原的杭州、湖州地区发生水稻高温热害频次和强度均大于嘉兴地区；（2）整个杭嘉湖平原高温热害发生的频次和强度随时间变化波动幅度较大，三个地区基本是同步波动的；（3）总体上高温频次和强度表现出增长趋势，其中在 2000-2009 年代高温热害频次最多、强度最大。

Abstract：Under the background of global warming, extremely high temperature is frequent, and the influence of high temperature and heat damage on rice is becoming more and more prominent. As one of the important producing areas of rice in China, It is of great significance to study the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of rice high temperature in the region. This paper, based on the historical data of meteorological stations of hangzhou, based on statistical analysis, linear regression analysis and inverse distance weighted interpolation, the method of analysis under the background of climate change, the spatial distribution of rice heat harm of hangzhou, time change tendency and decadal variation characteristics, high temperature hot against adaptive countermeasures for relevant departments to provide a scientific basis. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of high-temperature rice heat damage occurred in the Hangzhou and Huzhou regions were greater than in the Jiaxing region. The frequency and intensity of high-temperature heat damage in the entire Hangjiahu Plain fluctuate with time, and the three regions basically fluctuate synchronously. In general, the trends of high temperature frequency and intensity are increasing, but there are still fluctuations in different years in a small range. In the 2000-2009 years, the frequency of high-temperature heat damage was the most and the intensity was the highest.

关键词：杭嘉湖平原；水稻；高温热害；时空变化特征

Keyword: Hangjiahu Plain; Rice; Heat stress; Spatio-temporal pattern

1 前言 1

1.1 高温热害对水稻的影响机理 1

1.2 水稻高温热害研究现状 1

1.3 研究目的和意义 2

2 资料与方法 3

2.1 研究范围与数据来源 3

2.2 研究方法 3

2.2.1 基础数据分析 4

2.2.2 对水稻高温热害的时间变化趋势分析 4

2.3 技术路线 5

3 结果分析 6

3.1 水稻高温热害发生频次的时空分布格局 6

3.1.1 水稻高温热害发生频次的空间分布 6

3.1.2 水稻高温热害发生频次的年际变化 8

3.1.3 水稻高温热害发生频次的年代际变化特征 9

3.2 水稻高温强度的时空分布格局 10

3.2.1 水稻高温强度的空间分布杭嘉湖平原水稻高温热害时空变化特征研究:http://www.chuibin.com/shengwu/lunwen_206296.html